Awiqli (insulin icodec) Sales Forecast in Type 2 Diabetes

Q: When was Awiqli approved?

The FDA approved Awiqli (insulin icodec) for adults with type 2 diabetes on 26 March 2026 and expanded the label to children 10 years and older on 23 October 2026.

Q: What are Awiqli's projected US sales?

Zaash Labs' base case is about USD 267 million of US net revenue in 2031 across adults and children, within a range of USD 120 million to 520 million. Children contribute under USD 5 million.

Q: How does Awiqli compare with Onswik?

Both are once weekly basal insulins. Lilly's Onswik (insulin efsitora alfa) was approved on 24 September 2026 for adults only, so Awiqli is currently the only weekly insulin approved for children.

OUR VERDICTA franchise move, not a revenue driver.The children's label is commercially tiny, but it makes Awiqli the only weekly insulin from age 10 up, just as Lilly's Onswik arrives.

~USD 267M

Base case US net revenue, 2031, all agesRange USD 120M to 520M · Zaash Labs estimate

1.57 vs 1.32

HbA1c reduction in points vs daily glargine at week 52 (ONWARDS 1)

0.30 vs 0.16

serious or clinically significant lows per patient year vs glargine

<USD 5M

children's share of 2031 US revenue in our base case

What was approved and why it matters

Novo Nordisk's Awiqli (insulin icodec) is the first once weekly basal insulin, replacing seven daily injections with one. It launched in the US in August 2026 for adults with type 2 diabetes, and in October became the first weekly insulin approved for children 10 years and older, a month after Lilly's rival Onswik was approved for adults only.

Frequently asked questions

When was Awiqli approved?

The FDA approved Awiqli (insulin icodec) for adults with type 2 diabetes on 26 March 2026 and expanded the label to children 10 years and older on 23 October 2026.

What are Awiqli's projected US sales?

Zaash Labs' base case is about USD 267 million of US net revenue in 2031 across adults and children, within a range of USD 120 million to 520 million. Children contribute under USD 5 million.

How does Awiqli compare with Onswik?

Both are once weekly basal insulins. Lilly's Onswik (insulin efsitora alfa) was approved on 24 September 2026 for adults only, so Awiqli is currently the only weekly insulin approved for children.

Figures are company reported or from published sources unless marked as Zaash Labs estimates. Sources are listed in the executive summary and the full report. Market research to support business decisions; not investment advice.