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Obesity · Diabetes

Foundayo (orforglipron) in Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes: market forecast and verdict

Eli Lilly · FDA approved for obesity 1 April 2026 · EU positive opinion 16 October 2026

OUR VERDICTA category builder, not a category leader.The easiest GLP-1 to take and to make will widen the market, but it trails injectables on weight loss and started behind the Wegovy pill.
~USD 12B
Base case US net revenue, 2031Range USD 7B to 18B · Zaash Labs estimate
12.4% vs 0.9%
weight loss at 72 weeks on the top dose vs placebo (ATTAIN-1)
USD 98M
US sales in its first quarter, Q2 2026
USD 149 to 349
self pay price per month in the US

What was approved and why it matters

Eli Lilly's Foundayo (orforglipron) is a once daily GLP-1 pill with no food or water restrictions. As a small molecule rather than a peptide, it is easier to manufacture at scale. It launched in the US in the second quarter of 2026, three months after Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill.

Frequently asked questions

When was Foundayo approved?

The FDA approved Foundayo (orforglipron) for chronic weight management on 1 April 2026. The EU's CHMP gave a positive opinion for obesity and type 2 diabetes on 16 October 2026.

What are Foundayo's projected sales?

Zaash Labs' base case is about USD 12 billion of US net revenue in 2031, within a range of USD 7 billion to 18 billion, depending mainly on how many patients stay on therapy and on net price.

How does Foundayo compare with the Wegovy pill?

Both are once daily oral GLP-1 therapies with similar self pay prices. The Wegovy pill launched first, on 5 January 2026, and passed 5 million US prescriptions by August; Foundayo's advantage is dosing at any time without food or water rules.

Figures are company reported or from published sources unless marked as Zaash Labs estimates. Sources are listed in the executive summary and the full report. Market research to support business decisions; not investment advice.